Karnataka Exit Polls Point to Hung Assembly, JD(S) Holds Key

Some Exit polls show the BJP ahead and may form Govt with backing of JD(S)

All major Exit Polls held for the 222 Assembly seats in Karnataka point to a hung Assembly with the Congress and BJP almost ending in a tie for the top slot. However, a few polls show the BJP ahead.

If the average of all the Exit Polls conducted by various agencies is collated, the numbers read as 95 for BJP, 94 for Congress, 31 for the JD(S) and others 2.

But if C-Voter data is added, the numbers go to 101 for BJP, 86 for Congress, 32 for JD(S) and 3 for others.

In fact, C-voter has given BJP 101-113, Congress 82-94, JD(S) 18-31 and others 1-8.

The Times Now VMR polls have given 80-93 for the BJP, 90-103 for the Congress and 31 to 39 for the JD(S).

Axis India has predicted 85 seats for the BJP, 111 for the Congress and 26 for the JD(S).

Other Results;

Republic Jan Ki Baat also gives BJP the edge

BJP: 95-114

Congress: 73-82

JD(S): 32-43

NewsX-CNX Exit Poll

BJP: 102-110

Congress: 72-78

JD(S): 35-39

ABP-CSDS Poll: Hung Assembly in Karnataka With BJP Largest Party

BJP: 89-95

Congress: 85-91

JD(S): 32-38

Dighvijay 24/7 News Prediction

Congress: 76-80

BJP: 103-107

JD(S): 31-35

News Nation Exit Poll

Congress: 71-75

BJP: 105-109

JD(S): 36-40

Others: 3-5

India News-Chanakya Exit Poll

Congress: 73

BJP: 120

JD(S): 26

Others: 3

Suvarna’s prediction for Karnataka

Congress: 106-118

BJP: 79-92

JD(S): 22-30

Others: 1-4

India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll:

Congress: 106-118

BJP: 79-92

JD(S): 22-30

Others: 1-4

All this point to two things: that Karnataka is heading for a hung Assembly and secondly, a coalition is inevitable. Analysts point out the in all probability, it would be a BJP-JD(S) alliance.

Already the top BJP-RSS leadership is working towards the fine points to be thrashed out for such an alliance. Also to note is that the BJP may be ahead and may end up in a dictating position forcing the JD(S) little room to negotiate.  

Another factor is clear – that the Congress is losing the mandate. But it is not a big gain for the BJP either.

Though it seems that it was a triangular contest, on the ground it was a bipolar fight. In Old Mysuru, it was a fight between the JD(S) and Congress. Elsewhere across Karnataka, it was a bipolar fight between the BJP and Congress with JD(S) nowhere in the picture.

Region-wise, Exit Polls predict the following:

Greater Bengaluru: BJP 13-15, Congress 13-15, JD(S) 1-3. This indicates that there is no urban wave favouring the BJP as expected. But C-Voter has predicted a swing for the BJP.

Old Mysuru Region: BJP 4-10, Congress 15-21, JD(S) 22-29. This is a JD(S) stronghold and the party has held on. There is also a stronger consolidation of the Vokaliga votes following the Congress move on giving separate religion status to the Lingayat community.

Coastal Karnataka: BJP 6-10, Congress 11-15, JD(S) 0. This region was expected to give the BJP a tailwind. But a strong consolidation of minority votes seems to be favouring the Congress.  

Central Karnataka: BJP 15-19, Congress 10-15, JD(S) 0-2. Here the Lingayats do not seem to have given up the BJP.

Hyderabad-Karnatak Region: BJP 17-21, Congress 10-14, JD(S) 0. This is the region where the RSS under Ram Madhav did considerable work and this seems to have paid off. A point to note is that the SC-ST and a chunk of minority votes seem to have landed in BJP’s kitty.

Mumbai-Karnatak Region: BJP 20-26, Congress 23-29, JD(S) 0-1. Again, this is also a sort of stronghold of the Lingayat and all has not gone well for the BJP. But C-voter data shows a big swing for the BJP with Narendra Modi rallies in the region having paid rich dividends.

Interesting days ahead. Sources say the Congress is rushing its top strategists to work out a way to retain power.